By Halil Karaveli (vol. 8, no. 12 of the Turkey Analyst)
The immediate effects of Turkey’s June 7 election was that the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) lost its majority and President Erdoğan was forced to put his plans for a presidential system on hold, at least for the moment. Yet the prospects for Turkish democracy are not necessarily any brighter today. The most likely outcome is a coalition between the AKP and the rightist Nationalist Action Party (MHP). That is the preferred outcome for “conservative” business interests, who challenge “secular” business interests and want to continue to use state power to get their hands on a bigger share of capital. Their interests ensure that the AKP will remain on its confrontational track; that is the principal dynamic behind Turkey’s drift toward authoritarian rule, and it is far from having been halted.
Etyen Mahçupyan in Akşam writes that the common sense of Erdogan demonstrates that Turkey is moving toward democracy thanks to the AKP, in spite of its deficient democratic tradition. Güray Öz writes in Cumhuriyet that weakening and neutralizing the AKP power is not going to be an easy task, and that those who have conquered the state are not going to relinquish power just because they lost their majority in the election. Aydın Engin in Cumhuriyet argues that the AKP simply cannot abandon power, first because the party has committed war crimes in Syria and would face the consequences if it were to surrender government power, and second because the moneyed interests that have prospered during its reign and who depend on its power would not allow it to step down. İbrahim Karagül in Yeni Şafak writes that the same international will that ended democracy in Egypt is now scheming to oust AKP from government, but that AKP is Turkey's backbone and that the forty one percent are never going to surrender.
By Gareth Jenkins (vol. 8, no. 11 of the Turkey Analyst)
On June 2, 2015, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called for the editor of Turkey’s oldest newspaper to be sentenced to life in prison after the daily published evidence apparently showing that the Turkish government had lied about sending weapons to extremist groups in Syria.
By Toni Alaranta (vol. 8, no. 11 of the Turkey Analyst)
Can the Islamic-Conservative, utopian state project endure? This is the crucial question as Turkey approaches parliamentary elections, to be held on June 7. The whole political system is at stake. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his most enthusiastic “New Turkey” zealots are going to push their utopian Islamic-Conservative regime forward, to the very limits allowed by the international system. The Islamic-conservative utopian state project in Turkey is not yet exhausted.
By Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 5, no. 4 of the Turkey Analyst)
The authority of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been challenged by the security apparatus, the police and parts of the judiciary that enjoy the backing of the brotherhood of the Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen. The unprecedented challenge compels Erdoğan to circumscribe the power of his erstwhile ally, which thrives with the application of oppressive security measures. Whether Erdoğan will now see the strong incentive to seek a democratic, negotiated solution to the Kurdish issue, or continue to concentrate power in his own hands, remains to be seen.
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It includes topical analysis, as well as a summary of the Turkish media debate.