By Reuben Silverman

April 15, 2024

Turkey’s March 31 local elections upended national politics. As they approached, the question was whether the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) could retain the substantial gains it had made five years earlier. Optimists predicted that the mayors of İstanbul and Ankara would be reelected while pessimists hedged or even contemplated the CHP losing traditional strongholds like Eskişehir or İzmir. The results on election night were something else entirely. Not only were Istanbul and Ankara won easily but traditional pro-government strongholds like Bursa and Balıkesir flipped. At the national level, President Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) retain control of the government, but for the first time in twenty-two years, the AKP is not Turkey’s most popular political party. How Erdoğan will respond remains an open question.

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By Halil Karaveli

April 11, 2024

The historic victory of the social democratic CHP in the March 31 local elections has redrawn Turkey’s political map and overturned established truths about Turkish politics. Turkey is not condemned to permanent authoritarian right-wing rule. The CHP won because it combined an inclusive stance toward conservatives and Kurds with a centre-left message. But to reach national power, Turkey’s new leading party will need to show audacity and be prepared to take on entrenched economic interests.

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By Barçın Yinanç

March 11, 2024

The diplomatic traffic between Ankara and Washington on handling Sweden’s NATO entry process is emblematic of the erosion of trust between the two allied countries. Nonetheless, Turkey’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership and the Biden administration’s subsequent acquiescence to the F-16 sale to Turkey – and the suggestion that Turkey might even be invited back to the F-35 program if it gets rid of its Russian S400 missiles – have restored the bilateral relationship, even though there is still a gap of mistrust between the two allies that will take time to bridge. The crisis in the Middle East compels the U.S and Turkey to cooperate closer but Ankara and Washington will still need to make a sustained effort to rebuild their mutual confidence that the missteps of both sides have eroded.

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Joint Center Publications

Op-ed Halil Karaveli "The Rise and Rise of the Turkish Right", The New York Times, April 8, 2019

Analysis Halil Karaveli "The Myth of Erdogan's Power"Foreign Policy, August 29, 2018

Analysis Svante E. Cornell, A Road to Understanding in Syria? The U.S. and TurkeyThe American Interest, June 2018

Op-ed Halil Karaveli "Erdogan Wins Reelection"Foreign Affairs, June 25, 2018

Article Halil Karaveli "Will the Kurdish Question Secure Erdogan's Re-election?", Turkey Analyst, June 18, 2018

Research Article Svante E. Cornell "Erbakan, Kisakürek, and the Mainstreaming of Extremism in Turkey", Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, June 2018

Analysis Svante E. Cornell "The U.S. and Turkey: Past the Point of No Return?"The American Interest, February 1, 2018

Op-ed Svante E. Cornell "Erdogan's Turkey: the Role of a Little Known Islamic Poet", Breaking Defense, January 2, 2018

Research Article Halil Karaveli "Turkey's Authoritarian Legacy"Cairo Review of Global Affairs, January 2, 2018

 

The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It includes topical analysis, as well as a summary of the Turkish media debate.

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