By Natalia Konarzewska

June 29, 2020

The discovery of new gas reserves in the region was expected to bring peace and prosperity to the Eastern Mediterranean littoral states but it has created new geopolitical and security risks instead. In April and May this year, Turkey continued with gas drilling within Cyprus' exclusive economic zone which drew new harsh criticism from the European Union. Turkey's assertive stance shows that Ankara is unlikely to abandon its pursuit for hydrocarbons in the region and that it will hence remain on a collision course with Greece and Cyprus.  The EU would do well to seek de-escalation and should recognize that circumventing Turkey is not a viable strategy. Otherwise, there is a clear risk that the hydrocarbon dispute in the region will spiral out of control and lead to military confrontation.

By Gareth H. Jenkins

September 10,  2018

The attempt by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to offset the fallout from the crisis in Turkey’s relations with the US by re-engaging with the EU is unlikely to persuade Brussels either to revitalize Turkey’s stalled accession process or to provide sufficient financial aid to prevent the country’s economy from sliding into recession. Although a softening in tone and an increase in dialogue raises the possibility of cooperation in areas of mutual interest, nor is there much prospect of the re-engagement leading to a significant easing in Erdoğan’s repressive rule.

By Ozan Serdaroğlu

September 14, 2016

The new round of Cyprus peace talks kicked off with high expectations. Both the Turkish and Greek leaderships are aware that a lot could be at stake if the process fails to yield an agreement. But the prospects for achieving the reunification of Cyprus, forty-two years after it was divided, have never been better. As energy games intensify in the region, Turkey is arguably more interested by concrete gains in this field, rather than insisting on prolonging a stalemate that has lasted for more than four decades. The Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaderships have overcome a significant psychological threshold, engaging in a permanent dialogue. However, they need to build more trust in matters concerning Turkey. 

By Gareth H. Jenkins

July 22, 2016

Many of the details of the failed putsch in Turkey on July 15, 2016 still remain unclear. But, although it is possible that there was some form of involvement, there are problems with the narrative being peddled by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) that it was a purely Gülenist affair. What is clear is that, driven by a combination of opportunism and fear, President Tayyip Erdoğan has seized on the putsch to launch a massive crackdown that could severely destabilize an already very fragile country.

By Svante E. Cornell

July 20, 2016

The failed military coup in Turkey provides a window into just how unstable and vulnerable Turkey has become. The coup is a unique but not isolated event, more than anything a symptom of the decay of Turkish state institutions under Erdogan. The sizable post-coup repression will make matters worse, in fact increasing rather than decreasing the risk of further violence, including a new coup. Turkey is now more a problem in its own right than an ally to help solve regional problems.