By Richard Weitz (vol. 3, no. 16 of the Turkey Analyst)

The drawing down of the U.S. military presence in Iraq is set to remove a source of tension between Turkey and the United States. The two military establishments, whose longstanding ties have been strained by diverging changes in U.S. and Turkish national security policies in recent years, are eager to avoid further public confrontations. But since the Turkish government has begun exploring new partnerships with former adversaries, Washington policy makers should not have excessive confidence regarding U.S. leverage in Ankara, despite the continuing close ties between their two military establishments.

By Richard Weitz (vol. 3, no. 5 of the Turkey Analyst)

By dint of geography and its strategic relations, Turkey has assumed a pivotal role in Europe’s future ballistic missile defense (BMD) architecture. The United States has been lobbying Ankara to participate in its program within a NATO framework, while Iran and Russia have encouraged Turkey to keep its distance from Washington’s BMD plans. Turkish officials have strived to balance these competing forces while leveraging them to advance Turkey’s own regional security interests.

By Gareth H. Jenkins (vol. 3, no. 4 of the Turkey Analyst)

The recent detention of 68 serving and retired military personnel by the Turkish police on suspicion of planning a coup in 2003 has reinforced the deep divisions in Turkish society and escalated the already dangerous tensions between the country’s powerful armed forces and the civilian government. Although there have been arrests of serving and retired military personnel in the past – particularly during the controversial Ergenekon investigation – both the scale of the latest detentions and the claims on which they are based are without precedent. As a result, General İlker Başbuğ, the chief of the General Staff,  is now under intense pressure to react; particularly from his colleagues in the officer corps, the vast majority of whom regard the detentions as the latest move in a politically-motivated campaign of lies and disinformation which ultimately aims to destroy the military as an institution.

By Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 3, no. 4 of the Turkey Analyst)

The critical question today is whether the Turkish secularists will conclude that a reassessment of their ideological stance has become inevitable subsequent to the reversal of the regime of military tutelage. Not unlike the Islamists a decade ago, the seculars face the challenge to either broaden their appeal or concede defeat.  Without secular forces making a transition to liberalism, the democratic evolution of Islamic conservatism will remain uncertain.

By Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 3, no. 2 of the Turkey Analyst)

The Turkish military no longer commands the obedience of society. However, the demilitarization of the Turkish polity is not ushering in a reversal of the traditional state-society relationship. The omnipotence of the state is not in any basic sense challenged. The AKP seeks not so much to dismantle the absolute state authority that the military has embodied, as it strives to become its new embodiment.