By M.K. Kaya and Svante E. Cornell (vol. 1, no. 10 of the Turkey Analyst) 

Turkey’s military occupies a position of influence in the country’s society and politics unseen in any other western democracy. However, in spite of a propensity to interfere in politics, the top brass has remained relatively quiet in the past year, while the driving force in the vocal opposition to the AKP government has been the judiciary. But given the growing intensity of Turkey’s regime crisis, illustrated by the July 1 arrests, it remains to be seen whether the military can succeed in staying out of this fight.

By Kemal Kaya (vol. 7, no. 8 of the Turkey Analyst)

Redistribution through social services and welfare programs is a crucial source of electoral strength for the Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, this model for political success also strains the relation between the AKP and those societal segments that support the welfare programs with their taxes. The results of the March 30 elections demonstrate that support for the AKP is declining among the newly urbanized, conservative middle class, and show that the party faces a new challenge, not unlike the one that has been faced by European social democratic parties in government.

The speech that Haşim Kılıç, the president of the Turkish Constitutional Court, gave at the 52th anniversary of the founding of the court, sharply criticizing the government for the purges in the judiciary, has been widely castigated by pro-government commentators. Kılıç, a religious conservative, is condemned as a “traitor” to the cause of the Islamic conservatives. More cautious commentators observe that Kılıç has pointed to a real problem, but nonetheless make the case that Kılıç and the court needs to dispel the impression that it is taking sides in the power struggle between the government and the supporters of Fethullah Gülen.

By Gareth Jenkins (vol. 7, no. 7 of the Turkey Analyst)

On March 30, 2014, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) secured a resounding victory in the Turkish local elections. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan now appears set to use the party’s success as platform for his own bid for the presidency in August 2014. But, rather than bringing stability, the AKP’s local election victory and Erdogan’s presidential ambitions are likely to intensify the political turmoil in the country.