By Gareth H. Jenkins
April 3, 2018
The conquest of Afrin in northwest Syria has boosted President Erdoğan’s popular support and raised expectations amongst his supporters at a time when they already believe that they are active participants in a sacred struggle. But, with Russia, Iran or the US expected to block any further attempts at major territorial acquisitions in Syria or Iraq, Erdoğan is running out of options and in danger of losing electoral momentum long before Turkey is due to go to the polls in November 2019.
By Toni Alaranta
January 31, 2018
No substantial “Eurasian turn” of Turkish foreign policy is likely – or at any rate likely to be lasting. However, the deterioration of the Turkish-Western relations has nonetheless helped bring about an unholy alliance of various “anti-Westernists,” secularist-nationalists and Islamists, which is anything but insignificant in terms of domestic politics. The regime has been bolstered, as it can now count on being supported by at least some secularist nationalists in the name of “anti-imperialism.”
By Gareth H. Jenkins
January 22, 2018
The combination of the growing sense of empowerment amongst supporters of the Turkish government and the recent proliferation of reports that they are arming and organizing has reinforced concerns about not only the rule of law but also the risk that the country’s already severe social tensions may lead to communal violence.
By Cengiz Candar
December 20, 2017
The roots of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s “New Turkey” can be found in the decades that preceded the foundation of the Turkish republic. The ultranationalist Young Turks who ruled the Ottoman Empire during its final years – with catastrophic consequences – have extended their tentacles into the present. To preserve his power, Erdoğan has made a Faustian deal with their incarnations.
By Svante E. Cornell and Halil Karaveli
December 6, 2017
Reza Zarrab’s testimony in early December to a New York court was hardly helpful in breaking the impasse in Turkish-American relations. By implicating Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan directly in the oil-for-gold trade that is the subject of the trial, Zarrab may have contributed to a new low in the fraught alliance. However, the case is symptomatic of the fact that Turks and Americans lack basic trust. It also illustrates that they are now on completely different frequencies. The Zarrab case means entirely different things to Turks and Americans, and this disconnect risks contributing to a break that neither party may actually want.
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It includes topical analysis, as well as a summary of the Turkish media debate.