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By Michael Tanchum
With record-breaking arms exports globally, Turkey’s growing market share in the Arab monarchies holds the potential to greatly expand Ankara’s role as a security provider across the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, Turkey faces growing competition from Israel and India, which have significantly expanded their own weapons sales to the Arab monarchies, notably the UAE and Morocco. Deepening defense cooperation in ways that Turkey has not, Israel and India have engaged in the co-development of weapons systems with Arab defense firms and have established local weapons manufacturing in the Arab world. The next phase in the competition for the MENA weapons market share, as well as the regional geopolitical clout that accompanies it, could be determined by Saudi Arabia, raising Ankara’s geopolitical stakes in securing a sizable purchase of Turkish weapons by Riyadh.
The 2025 deal builds upon Saudi Arabia’s 2023 agreement to buy high altitude drones from Baykar, but would be much larger in scope, including Turkey’s Altay main battle tank, missile defense systems, and perhaps even Turkey’s Kaan fighter jet, which passed its first test flight last year but still is far from operational readiness.
The Turkish-Saudi arms deal would be the capstone to Turkey’s prior advances in arms sales to the Arab monarchies, outside its strategic partnership with Qatar. One year ago, Aselan opened an office in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had been a staunch geopolitical rival to Turkey for much of the previous decade. Signifying the marked turn around in relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi, Aselan signed a cooperation agreement with the UAE defense firm Calidus. In the western end of the MENA region, Morocco has been increasing its arm purchases from Turkey, with Rabat having ordered 200 Cobra II armored vehicles from the Turkish defense firm Otokar in 2024. In early 2025, Morocco took delivery of its first consignment of Baykar’s Bayraktar Akıncı combat drones. Rabat’s 2024 purchase of these sophisticated high-altitude, long endurance drones builds upon its 2021 purchase of 13 Bayraktar TB2 drones from the company. Morocco’s arms purchases represent an important geopolitical nod toward Ankara, given Turkey’s relationship with Morocco’s neighbor and bitter regional rival Algeria.
IMPLICATIONS: Despite Turkey’s impressive expansion of its arms exports to previously more estranged Arab monarchies, the sales also indicate the limits of Turkey’s appeal and the power of competing arms exporting countries to provide a compelling alternative. Morocco is a case in point. While Baykar established a subsidiary in Morocco to provide maintenance and spare part services for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the scale of the company’s investment shows no indication of joint Turkish-Moroccan co-production or co-development. In contrast, Morocco has developed a deep and multi-variegated arms purchasing relationship with Israel including co-production.
Even before the December 2020 renormalization of relations between the two countries, Israel was Morocco’s third largest arms supplier, covering 11% of its military needs. The relationship has expanded considerably since, with Israel’s BlueBird Aero Systems announcing in 2024 that it had established a production plant in Morocco. Israel’s second largest defense firm by revenue, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) holds a 50% share in BlueBird, which supplies a variety of UAV systems to Morocco including the SpyX loitering munition and the vertical take-off and landing WonderB and ThunderB systems. In 2022, Morocco bought IAI’s MX air defense system for about half a billion dollars.
Israel’s three defense firms in the SIPRI rankings each placed in the top 50, far above their Turkish counterparts. Israel’s Elbit achieving the 27th spot while IAI and Rafael ranked 32nd and 44th respectively. Morocco has turned to Israel as an alternative to France, reportedly ordering 36 of Elbit’s Atmos 2000 self-propelled artillery systems in February 2025 to replace the French-made Caesar artillery systems after the French systems experienced technical failures. Similarly in 2024, Morocco purchased two Ofek 13 surveillances satellites to replace the two satellites developed for Morocco by Airbus Defense and Space France and Thales Alenia Space France. In terms of drones, the Moroccan military already uses Elbit’s Hermes UAVs as well as IAI’s Heron UAVs and Harop loitering munitions.
Israel is not the only weapons exporter that is keeping the Turkish defense industry looking over its shoulder. Israel’s strategic partner India has also started production of weapons systems in Morocco. Tata Advanced System, the weapons manufacturing subsidiary of Indian conglomerate the Tata Group, entered into a 2024 agreement with Morocco to produce its Kestral armored combat vehicle in an industrial zone in the Casablanca area. Tata’s Advanced Systems’ premier product, the Kestral is a WhAP 8X8 (Wheeled Armored Platform) developed in partnership with India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation for optimal for survivability, mobility, and firepower. Tata’s Moroccan factory will have an initial production capacity of 100 combat vehicles per year. With the Moroccan Armed Forces slated to receive a total of 150 Kestrals over time, while the remainder of the infantry fighting vehicles are slated for export in Africa potentially undercutting Turkey’s armored vehicle sales on the continent. A rising weapons exporter, India also has three defense firms that have placed in the SIPRI rankings, at 43rd, 67th, and 94th place respectively. If these companies follow Tata Advanced Systems example and position Morocco as India’s gateway to the African arms market, Turkey could lose significant African market share to India.
Morocco is a bellwether of an expanding trend among the Arab monarchies of the MENA region. Following the 2020 Abraham Accords that normalized relations between the UAE and Israel, the Emirates’s largest defense firm EDGE came to two agreements in 2021 to jointly develop advanced drone defense systems and unmanned naval vessels for anti-submarine warfare. Elbit similarly established a subsidiary in the UAE in 2021, entering into a 2022 contract to supply the Emirati Air Force with anti-missile and electronic warfare systems. Rafael opened its Abu Dhabi office in 2023, but the company had already established a joint venture with the UAE in 2021 for the co-development of Artificial Intelligence and big data technologies for the civilian market. Although Emirati-Israeli cooperation in weapons co-development slowed since the October 2023 outbreak of the Gaza War, cooperation continues to expand and points to the durability of the relationship. In January 2025, EDGE bought a 30% stake in the Israeli defense firm Third Eye, which develops drone detection technology used by the Israel Defense Forces and certain NATO members. At the same time, EDGE invested $12 million in a new, majority EDGE-owned joint venture with Thirdeye Systems to help Thirdeye Systems expand into new markets. The UAE and India are eyeing the development of a similar relationship.
CONCLUSIONS: The Turkish defense industry’s 2024 record-breaking exports are a testament to the success of Ankara’s 25-year effort to make Turkey into a global player in 21st century arms manufacturing. Turkey’s emergence as a significant weapons supplier has also been assisted by the decisive battlefield successes of the Turkish systems deployed in the Syrian and Libyan Civil Wars as well as the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. As an analysis published by Turkey’s SETA Foundation observed, “The program to build up the manufacturing capacities of Turkey’s defense industry developed as a correlate of Turkey’s strategic imperative to function geopolitically as an independent actor.” With enhanced strategic autonomy, Turkey has expanded its geopolitical footprint in the Middle East and North Africa, becoming a primary actor in Syria and Libya.
At the same time, the expansion of Israeli and Indian weapons sales to the Arab monarchies of the MENA region and especially the advent of co-development and local production in Morocco and the UAE reveals an apprehension about rising Turkish power in the region and a desire among the Arab monarchies to preserve their own autonomy. With Saudi Arabia yet to establish formal diplomatic ties with Israel, the manner and extent to which Ankara becomes a weapons supplier for Riyadh will shape the future strategic contours of Turkey’s role as a security provider in the MENA region.
AUTHOR BIO: Prof. Michaël Tanchum teaches international relations of the Middle East and North Africa at the University of Navarra, Spain and an associate fellow in the Economics and Energy at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Studies (AIES) and an affiliated scholar of the Centre for Strategic Policy Implementation at Başkent Universty in Ankara, Turkey (Başkent-SAM) and the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies in Singapore. @michaeltanchum
By Vali Kaleji
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, the long-standing Turkish-Iranian rivalry has intensified in the region. Ankara will make the most of the challenges that Iran has suffered in the Middle East, advancing its geopolitical and economic goals and ambitions in the region to the detriment of Iranian interests. Tehran fears that Turkey will now be emboldened to make further headway in the South Caucasus to the detriment of Iranian interests and that it will disseminate Pan-Turkism and incite ethnic unrest and divisions in the Azeri and Kurdish areas in the northwest of Iran. Ultimately though the two countries prefer caution and seek to contain their rivalry. Turkey and Iran have a shared interest in limiting the scope of their rivalry, foreclosing military escalation.
BACKGROUND: Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey have maintained relations relation without direct military confrontation for nearly 400 years, with their common border unchanged since the signing of the Treaty of Zuhab in 1639. Notwithstanding, Turkish-Iranian rivalry has been a constant in the Middle East and in the Caucasus. Since 2011 the geopolitical competition between Iran and Turkey has largely played out in Syria, where Ankara supported the rebellion and Tehran the Assad regime. Turkey opposes the agenda of the so-called Axis of Resistance, groups aligned with and/or backed by Iran operating across the Middle East. Ankara’s support for Hamas has been only rhetorical and it has not displayed any sympathy for Hezbollah in Lebanon. On November 21, 2024, after a missile attack targeted a cargo ship in the Red Sea, Ankara sent 6 warships to counter and suppress the Yemeni Houthis, Iran’s proxies. Although “The Astana Process” was launched in 2017 at the initiative of Iran, Russia and Turkey to reduce tensions in Syria, the competition and differences between Iran and Russia with Turkey persisted.</>
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed the United States, Israel and Turkey for the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, after a lightning offensive by Sunni Islamist rebels toppled the regime last year. He said in a public speech that “there should be no doubt that what happened in Syria was plotted in the command rooms of the United States and Israel. We have evidence for this. One of the neighbouring countries of Syria also played a role, but the primary planners are the US and the Zionist regime”. There was no doubt that the neighbouring country that the Iranian leader had in mind was Turkey. Indeed, Iranian analysts largely agreed that the evolving situation in Syria would lead to a new phase of regional competition between Tehran and Ankara.
Turkey has demonstrated that it intends to play a decisive role in shaping the future of Syria and it stands to reap the benefits of the reconstruction of the country. Iran meanwhile, whose overall economic expenditure in Syria is valued at around $20-30 billion, can no longer expect to enjoy any access to Syria. Moreover, the loss of Syria deprives Iran of crucial transit corridors. The creation of the Iran-Iraq-Syria corridor was one of Iran's strategic goals to strengthen its influence in the Middle East region and secure access to the Mediterranean. But with the fall of the Assad regime this transit corridor is no longer viable. Turkey, meanwhile, is seeking implement a 17-billion-dollar “Development Road Project,” which consists of two rail and land routes, in cooperation with Iraq. This transit project could potentially bloc Iran's attempts in transit and transportation in the Persian Gulf, Iraq and the Eastern Mediterranean.
IMPLICATIONS: Iran is also concerned about the revival of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline project with the transfer of Qatar's natural gas through a pipeline that passes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria to Turkey and brings it to the European market. Although this pipeline faces important challenges – it would notably pass through currently Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria where Turkey is yet to assert its authority and secure the disarmament of the PKK affiliated Kurdish militia – its realization can be an alternative not only for the export of Iranian gas to Turkey, but also for the export of Russian gas to Europe. There is no doubt that the revival of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline project would increase Turkey’s bargaining power in the pricing of imported gas from the two competing powers Iran and Russia.
Moreover, Tehran fears that Turkey, after the fall of the Assad regime, will be emboldened to make further headway in the South Caucasus to the detriment of Iranian interests. Specifically, there is a concern in Iran, as well as in Armenia, that Azerbaijan, encouraged and supported by Turkey, will launch an attack on the Syunik province in the south of Armenia in order to realize the Zangezur Corridor and a direct land connection to Nakhichevan.
Iran is strongly opposed to the Zangezur Corridor due to the threat of blockage of the common border with Armenia – without the supervision and control of Armenia – and such an attack, if it were to take place, would obviously have far reaching regional ramifications, further tipping the balance of power in the South Caucasus in favour of the Baku-Ankara axis. A realization of the Zangezur Corridor as a part of the Middle Corridor, parallel to the realization of the “Development Road Project” between Iraq and Turkey, will inevitably reduce Iran's transit advantages in the region. Further, the realization of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, along with the revival of the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline project represents an important challenge for Iran's gas exports in the region.
Another major, indeed existential concern for Iran is that Turkey may seek to disseminate Pan-Turkism and incite ethnic unrest and divisions in the Azerbaijani and Kurdish areas in the northwest of Iran. Such concerns have been fuelled by the December, 2024 launch of the Persian-language service of Turkey's state television channel (TRT). Tehran is particularly sensitive, not least since the director of the TRT media Mehmet Sobacı on October 14, 2024 said “We are to open the TRT Persian channel at the end of this year. We must disturb Iran; we must disturb Iran!” Although he was subsequently dismissed, the controversial comments sparked debate and was met with strong criticism in Iran. In what looked like a direct response to the Turkish move, the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), Peyman Jebeli on January 21, 2025 announced that a Turkish section of Press TV will start broadcasting.
CONCLUSIONS: With the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, Iran has lost a crucial strategic ally in the Middle East and its longstanding regional policy has suffered challenges. Turkey, meanwhile, has gained the strategic upper hand and is advancing its geopolitical and economic goals and ambitions in the region which worries Iran. But the two countries prefer caution and seek to contain their rivalry. This was on display when İbrahim Kalın, the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) on February 8 visited Tehran for discussions with senior Iranian security officials, including Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian and Minister of Intelligence Seyed Esmail Khatib. The discussions focused on Syria, the war in Gaza and on countering the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Daesh (ISIL or ISIS), and other terrorist groups, as well as other shared security threats. This suggests that Iran is aware of the threat to security by the PKK-affiliated Syrian Kurds. For this reason, Iran has welcomed Abdullah Ocalan’s call to disarm and dissolve the PKK. Such a move would have dangerous repercussions in the Kurdistan region of Iraq and possibly also in the Kurdish regions in Iran.
Ankara will try to make the most of the challenges that Iran has suffered in the Middle East. In addition, Turkey feels that it has the advantage in the new round of competition with Iran. But Turkey and Iran nonetheless recognize that they have a shared interest in limiting the scope of their rivalry, foreclosing military escalation.
Vali Kaleji is based in Tehran, Iran, and holds a Ph.D. in Regional Studies, Central Asia and Caucasian Studies.
By Barçın Yinanç
While the Biden administration preferred to turn a cold shoulder to Turkey and remained largely deaf to Ankara’s messages for improved dialogue, President Donald Trump has always lent an ear to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and been receptive to his arguments. But President Trump will find the framework on points of contention between Washington and Ankara significantly altered after four years. Given his affinity for Erdoğan, and his appreciation of strong leaders, and big countries with big armies, Trump might decide to side with the Turkish president rather than continue to rely on a Kurdish proxy in Syria that the new Syrian government does not tolerate. But with Trump’s well-known unpredictability, a bad start between him and Erdoğan cannot be ruled out.
BACKGROUND: Donald Trump’s second term as president is met with cautious optimism by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his team. Ankara is optimistic because of the relationship that the two leaders built during Trump’s first presidential term. “Erdoğan is somebody I got along with great,” said Trump on December 16, 2024. Later, on January 6, 2025, Trump commented that “President Erdoğan is a friend of mine.” “He is a guy I like, respect. I think he respects me also," Trump quipped. Nonetheless, Ankara is cautious because the personal relationship between Erdoğan and Trump did not prevent the deterioration in U.S.-Turkey ties; on the contrary, decisions that dealt serious blows to bilateral trade and defense cooperation were taken during Trump’s first term.
President Trump will find the framework on points of contention between Washington and Ankara significantly altered after four years. Two issues have essentially poisoned US-Turkish relations: the first is Turkey’s purchase of a Russian-built S-400 air defense system. The second is U.S. support for the People’s Defense Units (YPG), a Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which both Turkey and the U.S. recognize as a terror organization.
On both issues, Erdoğan was initially able to convince Trump about Turkish arguments; yet the latter subsequently succumbed to the pressure from the U.S. Congress and the Pentagon. After two years of pressure on Ankara to abandon the S400s, Turkey was removed in July 2019 from the F-35 joint strike fighter program. Yet a month earlier, in June 2019, Trump appeared to agree with Turkey’s position. As he met Erdoğan on the sidelines of a G20 meeting, Trump said “The president [Erdoğan] was not allowed to buy the Patriot missiles, he wanted to do this, but he wasn't allowed by the Obama administration to buy them until after he made a deal to buy the other missiles. So he buys the other missile and then all of a sudden, they say you can buy our missile. You can't do business that way, it is not good." Trump added that as a NATO ally, Turkey was not treated fairly.
But, on his way out of office, Trump imposed sanctions on Turkey under the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), aiming to sanction countries that made a “significant purchase” of defense or intelligence equipment from Russia. This came after a year-long pressure campaign from the U.S. Congress. U.S. lawmakers were also angered by what were seen as aggressive Turkish moves in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. While Turkey’s military incursions into Syria annoyed both Congress and the Pentagon, this sentiment was not always shared with the same intensity by Trump, who has been critical of never-ending American wars in the Middle East.
During a phone call with Erdoğan in 2018 Trump agreed to move U.S. troops out of northeastern Syria to clear the way for a Turkish military operation to push back the YPG from the Turkish border. Erdoğan made his case to Trump by pointing to the near-total defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the country, and pledging that the Turkish army would fight ISIS. Trump's decision for a full withdrawal though, was never implemented. While 900 soldiers remained in Syria (which was recently declared to be 2000 at present), the U.S. military continued to arm and train the YPG under the Biden administration, a policy that has fueled Turkish mistrust of the United States. But major changes concerning Russia and Syria provide a new framework for the U.S.-Turkey relationship.
IMPLICATIONS: Russia’s war against Ukraine has put an end to further cooperation between Moscow and Ankara in the defense field while highlighting Turkey’s status as a NATO ally. Meanwhile, the fall of Bashar al-Assad has deprived Russia and Iran of a client regime in Syria and strengthened Turkey’s hands against the YPG. As unpredictability remains his favorite diplomatic tool, Trump refused to clarify during the transition period whether he would order a U.S. withdrawal from Syria. But one of the first foreign policy decisions that President Trump might take could concern Syria.
President Erdoğan can be expected to reach out to Trump as soon as possible to convince him that it will be very difficult for the U.S. to continue to use the YPG as a “useful proxy” as Syria’s new rulers have made it clear that they will not tolerate the existence of separate armed militia forces and intend to exercise full territorial control over the whole of the country. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the militia that overthrew Assad, insists that the YPG disband and that it is integrated into the new Syrian army on an individual basis, and not as a separate unit, which the YPG demands.
While Erdoğan would be prepared to guarantee that the Syrian Kurds will not be persecuted and that their rights will be safeguarded, he would also emphasize that the new rulers in Damascus are not open to any compromise that would maintain an autonomous status of any kind for the Kurds. Erdoğan will ask the U.S. to abandon the PKK/YPG once and for all since Ankara has made clear that all non-Syrian members of the YPG – and also PKK/YPG commanders who are Syrian citizens – must leave Syria.
The fall of Assad – who made it possible in the first place for the PKK/YPG to take control over northern and northeastern Syria – has taken place at a time when Ankara has initiated a new attempt to bring an end to the insurgency of the PKK. Erdoğan’s political partner Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has called on the PKK’s imprisoned founding leader Abdullah Öcalan to declare an end to the insurgency, in return for which he could eventually be granted parole. The stance of the U.S., which used to claim its support for the YPG is tactical, transactional and temporary, will be crucial. It is imperative for Turkey to eradicate the PKK’s presence – through its affiliate the YPG – in Syria, where it has been able to establish a mini-state under U.S. protection. Turkey hopes to accomplish this without having to resort to a military intervention. The military option remains on the table, but Ankara wants to avoid it since renewed armed conflict in Syria would risk undermining the attempts to achieve stability in Syria post-Assad and to attract urgently needed foreign financial investments and assistance. Erdoğan will try to convince Trump that the United States can safely withdraw its support for YPG/PKK as Turkey will step in and ensure that ISIS is not resurrected and that the Turkish army, together with the HTS, can take over the control of the prisons and camps where thousands of ISIS members are being kept.
Erdoğan will also seek to reassure Trump that Syria’s new regime will not pose a threat to Israel. Turkey’s staunch criticism of Israel during the war in Gaza risks hampering the dialogue between Erdoğan and Trump, but if the ceasefire that entered into force on January 19 holds, a renewed dialogue between Turkey and Israel could mitigate the risks.
During a press conference last December, Trump appeared to have taken note of the fact that Turkey’s action in Syria has weakened both Iran and Russia. Erdoğan will also try to win Trump’s appreciation by tapping into his dialogue with both Ukraine and Russia. Erdoğan is positioned to play a facilitating role in Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine and this in turn could facilitate finding a solution to the S400 problem.
CONCLUSION: While the Biden administration preferred to turn a cold shoulder to Turkey and remained largely deaf to Ankara’s messages for improved dialogue, Trump has always lent an ear to Turkish President Erdoğan and been receptive to his arguments. In contrast to skeptics among European allies, Trump will find in Turkey an enthusiastic NATO ally that can help facilitate his plan to end the war in Ukraine. Conversely, this could help Erdoğan convince Trump to shift the U.S. policy of supporting the PKK/YPG.
Given his affinity for Erdoğan, and his appreciation of strong leaders who command big armies, Trump might well decide to side with the Turkish president rather than continue to rely on a Kurdish proxy in Syria that the new Syrian government doesn’t tolerate. But as the situation on the Syrian front remains volatile, provocations by third parties as well as by actors on the ground carry the risk of causing early friction between Washington and Ankara. And with Trump’s famous unpredictability, a bad start between him and Erdoğan cannot be ruled out.
Barçın Yinanç is a foreign policy commentator at the Turkish new site t24.
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Op-ed Halil Karaveli "The Rise and Rise of the Turkish Right", The New York Times, April 8, 2019
Analysis Halil Karaveli "The Myth of Erdogan's Power", Foreign Policy, August 29, 2018
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, A Road to Understanding in Syria? The U.S. and Turkey, The American Interest, June 2018
Op-ed Halil Karaveli "Erdogan Wins Reelection", Foreign Affairs, June 25, 2018
Article Halil Karaveli "Will the Kurdish Question Secure Erdogan's Re-election?", Turkey Analyst, June 18, 2018
Research Article Svante E. Cornell "Erbakan, Kisakürek, and the Mainstreaming of Extremism in Turkey", Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, June 2018
Analysis Svante E. Cornell "The U.S. and Turkey: Past the Point of No Return?", The American Interest, February 1, 2018
Op-ed Svante E. Cornell "Erdogan's Turkey: the Role of a Little Known Islamic Poet", Breaking Defense, January 2, 2018
Research Article Halil Karaveli "Turkey's Authoritarian Legacy", Cairo Review of Global Affairs, January 2, 2018