By Gareth Jenkins (vol. 7, no. 3 of the Turkey Analyst) 

In recent weeks, there have been numerous calls for President Abdullah Gül to intervene to calm the continuing domestic political turmoil caused by the power struggle between Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan and the Gülen Movement. But any intervention carries considerable risks as well as potential benefits.

gul-erdogan

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By Svante E. Cornell (vol. 7, no. 3 of the Turkey Analyst)

Since Turkish prosecutors launched a major corruption probe targeting the government in December, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has focused  his efforts to prevent the release and dissemination of further incriminating evidence concerning his government and family. This has included efforts to undermine the independence of the judiciary, to stifle freedom of expression, and the peddling of various conspiracy theories. The new,  restrictive amendments to laws governing the internet are undoubtedly authoritarian and repressive, but they are simultaneously a sign of weakness.

tayypp

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By Svante E. Cornell (vol. 07, no. 01 of the Turkey Analyst)

Turkey’s already tense political environment has taken a turn for the worse since a December 17, 2013 raid exposed what appears to be a culture of runaway corruption in the AKP government. Events since then have put the spotlight on the two main trends in Turkey’s politics in the past year: on the one hand, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s growing unaccountability and authoritarianism; and on the other, the implosion of the Islamic conservative power coalition, and specifically the struggle between Erdoğan and the Gülen movement. Going forward, the question is for how long Erdoğan, whose ambitions of a presidential system have most certainly been thwarted, will be able to remain in power at all

Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan

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By Gareth H. Jenkins (vol. 07,  no. 01 of the Turkey Analyst)

The escalating power struggle between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the followers of the exiled Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen, collectively known as the Gülen Movement, has stripped away the last traces of the facades that each had spent years trying to construct.

fethullah gulen beddua goruntuleri izle ve fethullah gulen basbakan erdogana mi beddua etti h17523

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By Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 6, no. 23 of the Turkey Analyst)

The civil war in the Turkish state is unprecedented in the history of the republic. Prime Minister Erdoğan is preparing to deliver a final blow to the “cemaat” and may succeed in asserting his control over the state apparatus. But Erdoğan’s political fortunes depend on convincing the conservatives that his party is “clean”, and that Fethullah Gülen’s Hizmet movement is a “gang” in collusion with hostile foreign powers against the “pious” government. While it was easy to mobilize the conservatives against the Gezi protesters, it may prove more challenging to discredit what used to be fellow Islamic conservative allies.

2013-12-09-erdogan-merkezli-akp-ile-gulen-cemaatinin-iktidar-savasi--dr.-mustafa-pekoz

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Joint Center Publications

Analysis Halil Karaveli "The Myth of Erdogan's Power"Foreign Policy, August 29, 2018

Analysis Svante E. Cornell, A Road to Understanding in Syria? The U.S. and TurkeyThe American Interest, June 2018

Op-ed Halil Karaveli "Erdogan Wins Reelection"Foreign Affairs, June 25, 2018

Article Halil Karaveli "Will the Kurdish Question Secure Erdogan's Re-election?", Turkey Analyst, June 18, 2018

Research Article Svante E. Cornell "Erbakan, Kisakürek, and the Mainstreaming of Extremism in Turkey", Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, June 2018

Analysis Svante E. Cornell "The U.S. and Turkey: Past the Point of No Return?"The American Interest, February 1, 2018

Op-ed Svante E. Cornell "Erdogan's Turkey: the Role of a Little Known Islamic Poet", Breaking Defense, January 2, 2018

Research Article Halil Karaveli "Turkey's Authoritarian Legacy"Cairo Review of Global Affairs, January 2, 2018

 

The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It includes topical analysis, as well as a summary of the Turkish media debate.

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