Wikileaks Scandal Deprives Turkey's Ruling Party of its Cherished American Cover
By Halil M. Karaveli and M. K. Kaya (vol. 3, no. 21 of the Turkey Analyst)
U.S. power still matters in Turkey, and the revelation that the AKP does not enjoy universal American support is unwelcome news for the ruling party. The perception that it enjoyed full U.S. support was instrumental in the AKP’s ascendancy. The dissemination of the U.S. diplomatic correspondence from Ankara has called that myth into question, indeed effectively depriving the AKP of its cherished American cover. The reactions of leading AKP representatives to the Wikileaks publication are suggestive of a significant uneasiness. They speak of an anxiety that the U.S. could turn against the AKP, that it has indeed already done so.
The AKP's Cold War: Towards a Final Reckoning Between Erdogan and Gül?
By Gareth H. Jenkins (vol. 3, no. 21 of the Turkey Analyst)
There are increasing signs that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Abdullah Gül are preparing for a major confrontation if the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) wins the next Turkish general election in June 2011. Erdoğan has repeatedly declared that the AKP will introduce a new constitution if is returned to power. He has yet to announce any details, although AKP officials report that it will replace the current parliamentary system with a presidential or semi-presidential one; after which, Erdoğan will attempt to have himself elected president. The main problem is that Gül has made it clear that he is not prepared to step aside.
Turkey at Lisbon: the Missile Defense Compromise
By Gareth H. Jenkins (vol. 3, no. 20 of the Turkey Analyst)
The reaffirmation of Turkey’s continued active membership in NATO should reassure those who have been worried that the ruling Justice and development party (AKP) is abandoning Turkey’s westward strategic ties and embracing an eastern orientation. Nonetheless, an evolution of Turkey’s strategic identity cannot be ruled out since the current Turkish government has been abandoning many other long-standing foreign policy tenets.
The Prospect of Reformed Kemalists and Kurds Joining Hands Challenges the AKP's Hold on Power
By M. K. Kaya and Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 3, no. 20 of the Turkey Analyst)
The dominance of the Justice and development party (AKP) and the prospect of a perpetuation of the party’s rule for another term are creating a momentum for alternatives that hold the promise of rearranging the Turkish political landscape. The recent suggestion that the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) form an electoral alliance may not be as far-fetched as it appears. Such an alliance would enable the opposition to seriously challenge the AKP.
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