By Sada Garibova
January 19, 2022
While economic experts predict that Turkey’s new economic model will inevitably send the Turkish economy into a deep recession and impoverish its population, the regime is undeterred, and its commitment to new, unorthodox economic and monetary policies is unwavering. Given the historical pattern, a popular backlash is unlikely, and it would in any case not be allowed to imperil the survival of the regime. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is fully backed by the nationalist cadres of the state bureaucracy. The collapse of the lira may ultimately be more likely to pave the way for a more entrenched, authoritarian regime than to boost the prospects of the opposition.
By Natalia Konarzewska
January 14, 2022
In mid-December 2021, Turkey and Armenia mutually appointed envoys for upcoming normalization talks. Turkey has wider, strategic reasons for seeking reconciliation with Armenia, and the shift in the balance of power in South Caucasus since the second Karabakh war in 2020 has removed an obstacle for the pursuit of these ambitions. At first glance, the new rapprochement process promises to be more successful than the last time, in 2009, but ultimately the success of the rapprochement will depend on the trajectory of the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Even though Yerevan realizes that it stands to benefit from a normalization of relations with Turkey, there is nonetheless a risk that its conflict with Baku, and the fear that the Armenian public might not stomach what would appear to be concessions to Azerbaijan, will prevent the Armenian government from pursuing the normalization.
By Barış Soydan
December 6, 2021
For the second time since its founding in 1971, Turkey’s leading business organization has confronted a Turkish government and called on it to reverse its policies. On the face of it, TÜSİAD is carrying the banner of democracy. However, its pleas for democracy ring hollow. What TÜSİAD deplores is not so much authoritarianism as economic instability. TÜSİAD would hardly endorse an expansion of democracy and strengthening of democratic rights that imperil the primacy of neoliberal capitalism.
By Gareth Jenkins
October 29, 2021
By backing down on his vow to expel ten Western ambassadors for calling for the release of jailed philanthropist Osman Kavala, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has averted what threatened to be the most serious diplomatic crisis since his Justice and Development Party (AKP) first took office in November 2002. But, unless Kavala is soon released, the respite will only be temporary. The crisis and his reaction to it also suggest that Erdoğan genuinely believes his own rhetoric, including the often absurd conspiracy theories he increasingly uses to mask his own policy failures.
By Barış Soydan
December 10, 2020
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is certainly right to point to the need of reforms to restore the confidence of international investors in Turkey. Yet his determination, and assuming that he’s sincere, his ability to see reforms through is very much in doubt. Besides, Erdoğan retains a hands-on approach to monetary policy even after the departure of his son-in-law Berat Albayrak from the Ministry of Finance. He may well decide once again to stimulate the economy with cheaper and larger amounts of credit, which would inevitably further destabilize the Turkish economy.
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It includes topical analysis, as well as a summary of the Turkish media debate.