By Gareth Jenkins (vol. 7, no. 7 of the Turkey Analyst)

On March 30, 2014, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) secured a resounding victory in the Turkish local elections. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan now appears set to use the party’s success as platform for his own bid for the presidency in August 2014. But, rather than bringing stability, the AKP’s local election victory and Erdogan’s presidential ambitions are likely to intensify the political turmoil in the country. 

By Micha’el Tanchum (vol. 7, no. 7 of the Turkey Analyst)

With the annexation of Crimea, Turkey faces a stronger and more emboldened Russian naval power in the Black Sea. A resurgent Russia may be tempted to exploit its temporary naval dominance to alter current Black Sea energy exploitation and transportation arrangements more in its favor and to the detriment of Turkey and its partners in the Caucasus. The politically motivated stoppage of Turkey’s National Warship Project’s production schedule has created a window of vulnerability in Turkey’s Black Sea naval defenses in the face of rapidly rising Russian naval power.  

By Hendrik Müller (vol. 7, no. 6 of the Turkey Analyst)

Turkey recently promulgated a new Internet bill and swiftly used it to block access to the micro-blogging platform Twitter, and subsequently Youtube. In line with a longer history of fundamental rights violations, this step marks another chapter in Turkey’s recent path towards absolute censorship. In light of international and regional commitments, however, Turkey is increasingly at odds and may even risk forsaking its EU membership candidacy.