Welfare Policies are the Key to the AKP’s Electoral Successes
By Kemal Kaya (vol. 7, no. 8 of the Turkey Analyst)
Redistribution through social services and welfare programs is a crucial source of electoral strength for the Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, this model for political success also strains the relation between the AKP and those societal segments that support the welfare programs with their taxes. The results of the March 30 elections demonstrate that support for the AKP is declining among the newly urbanized, conservative middle class, and show that the party faces a new challenge, not unlike the one that has been faced by European social democratic parties in government.
Turkey’s Constitutional Court: The Last Resort of Hope for the Rule of Law?
By Hendrik Müller (vol. 7, no. 8 of the Turkey Analyst)
The determination of Turkey’s Constitutional Court to fulfill its role of upholding the rule of law, in spite of this putting it at odds with the mercurial prime minister, has unexpectedly presented a check on Erdoğan’s ambitions. The recent rulings of the Court raise hopes that it can be a true bastion of the rule of law. But if the allegations that its president, Haşim Kılıç, harbors ambitions to become president of the Republic were revealed to be true, those who have called the integrity of the Court into question will appear to be vindicated. That would be regrettable.
The Repercussions of the AKP's Local Election Victory
By Gareth Jenkins (vol. 7, no. 7 of the Turkey Analyst)
On March 30, 2014, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) secured a resounding victory in the Turkish local elections. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan now appears set to use the party’s success as platform for his own bid for the presidency in August 2014. But, rather than bringing stability, the AKP’s local election victory and Erdogan’s presidential ambitions are likely to intensify the political turmoil in the country.
Turkey Vulnerable to Rising Russian Power in the Black Sea
By Micha’el Tanchum (vol. 7, no. 7 of the Turkey Analyst)
With the annexation of Crimea, Turkey faces a stronger and more emboldened Russian naval power in the Black Sea. A resurgent Russia may be tempted to exploit its temporary naval dominance to alter current Black Sea energy exploitation and transportation arrangements more in its favor and to the detriment of Turkey and its partners in the Caucasus. The politically motivated stoppage of Turkey’s National Warship Project’s production schedule has created a window of vulnerability in Turkey’s Black Sea naval defenses in the face of rapidly rising Russian naval power.
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