by Svante E. Cornell (vol. 6, no. 8 of the Turkey Analyst)

Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hardly hides his ambition to accede to the presidency under a new constitution providing for a presidential system. Yet his ambition for a further concentration of power in his own hands is beginning to generate unlikely counter-forces. Chief among these is the growing coordination among other forces on the Turkish political spectrum – including the CHP, the Fethullah Gülen movement, and president Abdullah Gül. The latter, in particular, is beginning to more vocally distance himself from Erdoğan in both domestic and foreign affairs. While it may be too early to talk of a rupture, Gül is becoming an important counter-balance to Erdoğan.

by Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 6, no. 8 of the Turkey Analyst)

The imperative to secure energy supplies and the prospect of continued economic growth entice the Turkish state to seek a democratic resolution of the country’s ethnic conflict. Turkey remains determined to deepen the economic integration with the self governing, oil-rich Kurdish region in northern Iraq, and that in turn makes it necessary to seek reconciliation with the Kurds of Turkey. But it should not be assumed that the prospect of future gains, in terms of prosperity and power, made possible in part by secured access to Kurdish oil, will defuse the Turkish nationalist backlash that is building up. Coping with a nationalist psychology that does not necessarily heed what is “rational” is going to be a major challenge for Turkey’s peacemakers.

by Gareth H. jenkins (vol. 6, no. 7 of the Turkey Analyst)

On April 4, 2013, Turkey’s notorious Ergenekon trial took another twist when prosecutors accused one of suspects of murdering former President Turgut Özal in 1993, just four months after a judicial review had failed to find any evidence of foul play in Özal’s death.  On April 9, 2013, prosecutors launched a judicial investigation against members of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) for “inciting the public to participate in illegal meetings and demonstrations” after they helped organize protests outside the courthouse in Silivri, west of Istanbul, where the Ergenekon hearings are being held. Such developments have reinforced already grave concerns not just about the cases themselves but about prospects for the rule of law in Turkey.