By Svante E. Cornell (vol. 3, no. 14 of the Turkey Analyst)

On September 12, Turkey will vote on a package of constitutional amendments. Yet the campaign has turned more into a referendum on the AKP government and on Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan than on the merits of the amendments proposed. The campaign has been marked by the acrimonious tone between the main political leaders. It has thus served to underscore the polarization of Turkish society.. Essentially, the campaign is a major dress rehearsal for the general elections that must be held by July 2011, and not least a test of the stamina of the first major political challenger to Erdoğan’s AKP, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

By Richard Weitz (vol. 3, no. 14 of the Turkey Analyst)

Turkey is rapidly expanding its military forces by domestically producing many weapons and importing many more. The country is currently the world’s fourth largest arms importer, but the Turkish government is vigorously seeking to reduce its dependence on foreign arms suppliers while still retaining the capacity to wage conventional warfare in cooperation with its NATO allies.  Turkish companies have also begun to assume the position as leading international arms sellers, making Turkey the world’s twenty-eight largest national arms exporter. In 2008, Turkish defense companies spent 228 million US Dollars on research and development. If continued, this trend will further reduce Turkey’s need to purchase foreign arms, and enhance Ankara’s strategic autonomy.

By Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 3, no. 13 of the Turkey Analyst)

After the failure of the Kurdish opening and the offensive of the PKK, Turkey gropes for a way out of its Kurdish impasse. Recent statements by the Turkish Chief of the General staff General İlker Başbuğ suggest that a major military incursion into northern Iraq to stamp out the PKK is being considered. Yet it is unlikely that the Turkish state leadership truly believes that there is a military solution to the challenge posed by the demands of the Kurdish population. The moment when that challenge will have to be properly addressed is only being postponed.