By Gareth H. Jenkins (vol. 3, no. 4 of the Turkey Analyst)

The recent detention of 68 serving and retired military personnel by the Turkish police on suspicion of planning a coup in 2003 has reinforced the deep divisions in Turkish society and escalated the already dangerous tensions between the country’s powerful armed forces and the civilian government. Although there have been arrests of serving and retired military personnel in the past – particularly during the controversial Ergenekon investigation – both the scale of the latest detentions and the claims on which they are based are without precedent. As a result, General İlker Başbuğ, the chief of the General Staff,  is now under intense pressure to react; particularly from his colleagues in the officer corps, the vast majority of whom regard the detentions as the latest move in a politically-motivated campaign of lies and disinformation which ultimately aims to destroy the military as an institution.

By Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 3, no. 4 of the Turkey Analyst)

The critical question today is whether the Turkish secularists will conclude that a reassessment of their ideological stance has become inevitable subsequent to the reversal of the regime of military tutelage. Not unlike the Islamists a decade ago, the seculars face the challenge to either broaden their appeal or concede defeat.  Without secular forces making a transition to liberalism, the democratic evolution of Islamic conservatism will remain uncertain.

By M. K. Kaya and Halil M. Karaveli (vol. 3, no. 3 of the Turkey Analyst)

As Iran’s nuclear ambitions cause growing concern among Western powers, Turkey remains committed to its ambition of staking out a mediating position in the Iranian-Western stand-off. However, the Turkish policy rests on the unrealistic assumption that Ankara can somehow avoid hard choices. Indeed, Turkey’s position is set to become increasingly untenable as the tensions rise. Although it would seem that Ankara faces a choice between retaining the trust of the United States and remaining true to the eastern vocation of its foreign policy, appearing to be an advocate of Iran is ultimately undermining Turkey’s credibility in the Middle East as well.